Northern Hemisphere 2023 Forecast and Update

. From CNN to Bloomberg to Olive Oil Times, most of us have read firsthand about the impending EVOO shortage in light of Spain's second-worst drought in history.

Recap of 2023 to Present:

• Spain's sweltering hot and arid summer and low olive oil stocks pushed global prices through the roof. 
• Bleak rainfall this past Spring in Spain exacerbated high pricing as the upcoming 2023 harvest will be similar to the 2022 harvest due to lack of water, scant carryover, and low stocks.
• For the first time in history, Lampante oil is trading at €7.50/kg, highlighting the extreme shortfall in all grades and categories of EVOO. 
• The minimal remaining inventory from last year's crush is hovering around €8.50/kg for standard, B-grade EVOO, setting the stage for 2023 harvest pricing. 

2023/24 Harvest Outlook

• Today, farmers are bidding their fruit to the highest buyer, pushing prices even higher for the 2023 crush. 
• Prices for new green EVOO will eclipse last year by more than 60%.
• Spain's harvest appears to be a repeat of last year. 
• Italian oil output is expected to drop by 40% and Greece 50%, adding to the 2023/24 global supply squeeze. (Note: Both countries' olive trees are on their "resting year" with lesser fruit load versus 2022.)
• Quality EVOO will be expensive and much more scarce; many small export brands and quality producers will not survive this year due to exorbitant fruit costs exceeding €1.60 to €2.00 per kg of olives. The historical ten-year average price/kg of olive fruit hovers around €0.55/kg.
• This coming Spring, rain will be the critical factor in cooling down prices. If ample rain falls in March and April, pricing should begin to ease in mid-2024.
• EU EVOO consumer demand is dropping, indicating a potential future demand reduction that could help lower today's astronomical olive oil prices.